Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) shared May inflation data with the public yesterday. According to the announced data, while the increase rates for retiree and civil servant salaries have become largely clear, it has been revealed that the purchasing power of the minimum wage, which was determined as 28 thousand 075 lira at the beginning of the year, decreased by 4 thousand 664 lira to 23 thousand 411 lira. Considering the finalized 5-month cumulative inflation of 16.60 percent, it was observed that there was a significant decrease in the purchasing power of the minimum wage, which increased to 28 thousand 075 lira at the beginning of 2026.
HOW MUCH WILL THE MINIMUM WAGE INCREASE? According to the information obtained, it is evaluated that the net minimum wage should increase to 32 thousand 735 lira, even without taking into account the inflation data for the June-December period. On the other hand, based on the annual inflation rate of 32.61 percent, it is stated that the net minimum wage should be at the level of 37 thousand 230 lira. While it is a matter of curiosity whether the minimum wage will be increased in July or not, considering the 26 percent inflation forecast updated by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) for the end of 2026 in its last inflation report, it is predicted that the net minimum wage will be increased by approximately 7 thousand 300 liras and in this context the new minimum wage should increase to 35 thousand 375 liras.
IT WILL BE CLEAR WITH THE DATA IN THE COMING MONTHS. In the CBRT’s May 2026 Market Participants Survey, the year-end cumulative inflation expectation was announced as 28.94 percent. Based on this estimate, it is calculated that the minimum wage should be increased by a net 8 thousand 125 liras and the new minimum wage should reach the level of 36 thousand 200 liras. While millions of minimum wage workers demand an interim increase from the government in July, it is stated that the possible increase in the minimum wage will become clearer with the inflation data to be announced in the coming months.
On the other hand, while experts do not expect an interim increase in the minimum wage in July, they state that the first Minimum Wage Determination Commission meeting will be held in December and the new minimum wage will be determined at the end of the year.
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