Amasya University Faculty Member Dr. Yusuf Bahadır Keskin wrote about the impact of the Strait of Hormuz on the temporary ceasefire in the US/Israel-Iran War for AA Analysis. *** The US / Israel – Iran War entered a ceasefire period that was considered fragile. Although no results were obtained from the negotiations held in Islamabad hosted by Pakistan on Saturday, there is no return to war yet. Iran’s escalation of tensions to Hormuz threatens to create unmanageable crises in the global economy, with the costs of the conflict far beyond geographical borders.
Although it is undoubtedly not a single determinant on the path to war or peace, Hormuz shapes strategies as an important factor affecting global political and economic calculations. What does the Strait of Hormuz mean on the path to a ceasefire? Hormuz, defined as “the world’s most important transit point” by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), is a huge strategic trump card for Tehran. Iran was highlighting its “engagement to close the Strait of Hormuz” in response to the US and Israeli threats in the pre-war period.
Approximately 20-25 percent of the oil transported by sea in global trade (an average of 15-20 million barrels per day) and 20 percent of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) were passing through Hormuz. In addition, 35 percent of fertilizers such as urea, ammonia, phosphate and approximately one-third of the helium used in microchip production were transported to Europe and Asia through this 33-kilometer-wide waterway. When all these are taken into account, Hormuz reveals that “the war has evaporated geographical borders.” Another point that increases the strategic value of the Strait of Hormuz is that there is no real and effective alternative yet.
The capacity of alternative routes such as Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline or the Habshan-Fujairah Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is around 3.5 to 5.5 million barrels and is far from compensating the 20 million barrels of strait traffic. The second important point here is that the USA cannot produce a military solution. Opening the strait by using hard force, keeping it open and clearing it of mines, even if there is serious damage to Iran’s conventional military capacity, navy or air elements; It is a very risky, costly pursuit that can take months.
In other words, establishing superiority in the field does not mean getting results in Hormuz. The strait, where the average depth is around 50 meters, not only limits the maneuverability of marine vessels; The shipping lane is just a few kilometers from the Iranian coast and islands, making the area an ideal target for mines and land-based weapon systems. Because Iran’s access blocking and denial strategy, consisting of cheap unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), mines and shore-based missiles, causes the US military power to be stuck in this bottleneck, making it difficult to achieve results with attacks.
Although there was no “full closure” in the classical sense in the Bosphorus, global insurance companies canceled the guarantees of ships heading to the region, creating a financial blockade. The fact that insurance premiums have increased approximately 10 times and this figure has reached over 3.5 million dollars for giant oil tankers shows that the market has submitted to the blockade. As a natural result, the barrel price of Brent oil climbed above 120 dollars and one of the biggest energy shocks since 1973 occurred.
Moreover, since the first days of the war, the handling of flammable, combustible or explosive products has not been allowed in almost any port in the Arabian Peninsula. Curtailing or completely cutting off the flow of hydrocarbons from the region to international markets shakes the commercial and logistics order in a wide geography, especially in the Gulf countries, from India to Japan, from South Korea to China. Undoubtedly, the West cannot remain isolated from these developments.
The fear of a rebound in inflation and a new collapse in supply chains makes the ceasefire a necessity to prevent global economic collapse, far beyond a military choice, creating inevitable diplomatic pressure on Washington. Trump’s uneasiness: Preventing such actions that could trigger a worldwide economic recession is not a choice but an obligation for the United States. As a matter of fact, it is not a coincidence or an ordinary demand that the only issue the US side focused on during the ceasefire negotiations was “the opening of Hormuz”.
Iran, which US President Donald Trump has threatened to hit energy facilities and bridges and even “destroy its civilization”, seems to be the side that has an easier hand, at least in the first round, thanks to Hormuz. At the end of the day, the most important factor that brought Washington to the mediation table established by Pakistan was; The crisis has reached an unsustainable level for the USA and its allies. As a result, although Iran was seriously injured in the conventional war, it balances the power asymmetry thanks to its strategy towards the Strait of Hormuz.
While there are threats that the intensity of the war will increase or even turn into total destruction, the US’s preference for a ceasefire and de-escalation (de-escalation) is the result of a clear geopolitical reality. Every day that Hormuz remains closed, the foundations of the American dollar and global supply chains are shaken, and US allies in every part of the world, especially the Arab monarchies of the Gulf, are harmed by this “strategic strangulation” move of Iran.
The use of the Hormuz trump card obliges Washington to come to the table and seek diplomatic formulas that will preserve the status quo or build a new status quo – above all, a ceasefire regime – instead of a military solution. The whole world has seen that the Strait of Hormuz appears to be the strongest shackle limiting the strategic flexibility of US aggression against Iran. While it is the key to bringing the parties to the table, the discussions on what kind of status quo will be established regarding the Bosphorus transit regime in the post-war period are also the most important obstacle to peace.
Source: AA
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